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학술자료 검색

주택가격이 가계부채 부도에 미치는 영향 : 개별 차주 데이터를 중심으로

  • 엄윤성 한성대학교 경영학부 교수
  • 정호성 한국은행 경제연구원 금융통화연구실 연구위원
주택가격이 가계부채의 부실위험에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 가계부채 미시자료를 이용하여 가계부채의 특성을 통제한 후에 주택가격이 가계부채 부도율에 미치는 영향을 분석한 결과 주택가격은 가계부채 부도율에 음의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 주택가격은 비자영업자 차주, 금융 접근성이 낮은 저신용 차주와 저소득 차주, 소득대비 대출 규모가 큰 차주의 가계부채 부도율에 유의한 영향을 미쳤다. 한편, 2014년 7월 부동산 규제완화 정책이 시행된 이후에 금융기관의 신용공급 확대와 주택가격 상승이 가계부채 부도율을 유의하게 낮추는 것으로 드러났다. 이러한 결과는 개인의 소득증가와 무관한 신용공급 증가로 인해 주택가격이 신용경로를 통해 가계부채 부도율에 영향을 미치고 있음을 보인 Mian and Sufi (2011)의 연구결과와 일치한다. 특히 신용등급이 낮은 그룹과 소득이 낮은 그룹에서 주택가격이 가계부채 부도율에 미치는 영향이 명확하게 관측되는 현상은 Mueller and Yannelis (2019)의 연구결과와 일치한다. 만약 주택가격이 급격히 하락한다면 취약계층의 부도와 파산으로 인한 금융시장의 시스템 리스크 문제는 심각할 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 가계부채 부도로 인한 개별 금융기관의 가계부채 위험과 금융시장의 시스템 위험에 대한 선제적 대응 방안 모색을 위한 함의를 제공한다는 점에서 본 연구는 의의를 지닌다.
가계부채,주택가격,부도확률,채무불이행,가계대출

House Prices and Household Debt Defaults : Focusing on Individual Borrower Data

  • Yunsung Eom
  • Hosung Jung
This study analyzes the effect of house prices on the insolvency of household debt after controlling for the individual characteristics of household debt using micro data on household debt. We analyze household debt by dividing it into self-employed loans and non-business loans, and analyze the default rate by dividing it into credit rating, income, and income/loan ratio. Additionally, the effect of housing prices on the household debt default rate before and after the real estate deregulation policy is analyzed. Also, unlike previous studies using a single real estate price index, the effect of regional housing prices on the household debt default rate is analyzed using the regional real estate price index. This study differs from previous studies in that it analyzes 582,949 borrowers’ information for the past 22 quarters (from March 2012 to June 2017) using the Bank of Korea household debt DB. The representativeness of the sample and the reliability of the analysis result can be guaranteed in that the sample was drawn from all borrowers rather than some financial companies or some loan information. Previous research mainly uses a single real estate price index or real estate price index in major cities, so in most cases, regional real estate price differences are not considered. This study differs from previous studies in that it uses housing prices based on city/gun/gu standards. The main results are as follows. First, the housing price has a significant negative (-) effect on the household debt default rate. It has been confirmed that if the house price rises, the default rate of household debt in the next quarter will decrease, but if the house price falls, the default rate of household debt in the next quarter will rise. Despite the recent continuous increase in household debt, the stable trend of the default rate of household loans appears to be largely due to the rise in housing prices. However, if housing prices fall in the future, the risk of household debt may increase, raising the need for preemptive management by policy authorities. Second, the housing price has a significant effect on the household debt default rate of non-business owners, low-credit and low-income borrowers with low financial access, and borrowers with a small income/loan ratio. These results are consistent with the research results of Mian and Sufi (2011), who show that house prices have an effect on the household debt default rate through credit channels due to an increase in credit supply independent of individual income growth. In particular, the effect of house price on the household debt default rate is clearly observed in the low-credit and low-income group, consistent with the findings of Mueller and Yannelis (2019), and the household debt risk of low-credit borrowers and low-income borrowers. Finally, after the real estate deregulation policy was implemented, the effect of house price on the household debt default rate was significant. Since the real estate deregulation policy was implemented in July 2014, the expansion of credit supply by financial institutions and the rise in housing prices show that the household debt default rate has been significantly lowered. Therefore, fluctuations in the credit supply of financial institutions are the main path that housing prices affect the household debt default rate. If house prices drop sharply, the problem of system risk in the financial market due to bankruptcy of vulnerable groups is expected to be serious. Therefore, this study provides implications for a preemptive countermeasure against the risk of household debt of financial institutions and the system risk of the financial market due to household debt default.
Househod Debt,HouSe Price,Default Probability,Insolvency,HouseholD Loan