LOG IN창 닫기

  • 회원님의 아이디와 패스워드를 입력해 주세요.
  • 회원이 아니시면 아래 [회원가입]을 눌러 회원가입을 해주시기 바랍니다.

아이디 저장

   

아이디 중복검사창 닫기

HONGGIDONG
사용 가능한 회원 아이디 입니다.

E-mail 중복확인창 닫기

honggildong@naver.com
사용 가능한 E-mail 주소 입니다.

우편번호 검색창 닫기

검색

SEARCH창 닫기

비밀번호 찾기

아이디

성명

E-mail

학술자료 검색

Can Swap Basis Predict Foreign Exchange Rate? Evidence from Korea

  • Dong Wook Lee Professor, Korea University Business School
  • Eun-young Shin Ph.D. candidate, Korea University Business School
For the period from January 2000 to August 2021, we show that changes in the swap basis for Korean won and U.S. dollar predict changes in the exchange rate between the two currencies at weekly frequencies. More precisely, when the basis drops and becomes more negative, the exchange rate rises (i.e., dollar appreciates) subsequently, after controlling for their contemporaneous relation, the serial correlation in the exchange rate movements, and the global financial cycles. The swap basis has a factor structure and its first (level) and the second (slope) factors are useful in predicting the exchange rate, especially when used together. Based on the findings, we propose simple prediction rules that market participants can use in real time.

  • Dong Wook Lee
  • Eun-young Shin
For the period from January 2000 to August 2021, we show that changes in the swap basis for Korean won and U.S. dollar predict changes in the exchange rate between the two currencies at weekly frequencies. More precisely, when the basis drops and becomes more negative, the exchange rate rises (i.e., dollar appreciates) subsequently, after controlling for their contemporaneous relation, the serial correlation in the exchange rate movements, and the global financial cycles. The swap basis has a factor structure and its first (level) and the second (slope) factors are useful in predicting the exchange rate, especially when used together. Based on the findings, we propose simple prediction rules that market participants can use in real time.
Swap Basis,Foreign exchange,CIP,Forecast,Korea