À繫¿¬±¸ Á¦ ±Ç È£ (2010³â 5¿ù)
Asian Review of Financial Research, Vol., No..
pp.605~633
pp.605~633
Conditional Volatility and the GARCH Option Pricing Model with Non-Normal Innovations
Suk Joon Byun KAIST Business School, Korea
Byungsun Min KAIST Business School, Korea
Based on the theory of a wedge between the physical and risk-neutral conditional volatilities in Christoffersen, Elkamhi, Feunou, and Jacobs (2009), we develop a modification on the GARCH option pricing model with the filtered historical simulation proposed in Barone-Adesi, Engle, and Mancini (2008). The current conditional volatilities under the physical and risk-neutral measures are the same in the previous model, but should have been allowed to be different. Using extensive data on S&P 500 index options, our approach, which employs the current risk-neutral conditional volatility estimated from the cross-section of the option prices (in contrast to the existing GARCH option pricing models), maintains theoretical consistency under conditional non-normality as well as improves the empirical performances. Remarkably, the risk-neutral volatility dynamics are stable over time under this model. In addition, the comparison between the VIX index and the riskneutral integrated volatility validates our approach economically.
Suk Joon Byun
Byungsun Min
Based on the theory of a wedge between the physical and risk-neutral conditional volatilities in Christoffersen, Elkamhi, Feunou, and Jacobs (2009), we develop a modification on the GARCH option pricing model with the filtered historical simulation proposed in Barone-Adesi, Engle, and Mancini (2008). The current conditional volatilities under the physical and risk-neutral measures are the same in the previous model, but should have been allowed to be different. Using extensive data on S&P 500 index options, our approach, which employs the current risk-neutral conditional volatility estimated from the cross-section of the option prices (in contrast to the existing GARCH option pricing models), maintains theoretical consistency under conditional non-normality as well as improves the empirical performances. Remarkably, the risk-neutral volatility dynamics are stable over time under this model. In addition, the comparison between the VIX index and the riskneutral integrated volatility validates our approach economically.
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