À繫¿¬±¸ Á¦ ±Ç È£ (2012³â 9¿ù)
Asian Review of Financial Research, Vol., No..
pp.1094~1119
pp.1094~1119
Do Implied Put and Call Sneers Contain Different Information?
Youngsoo Choi Department of Mathematics Hankuk University of Foreign Studies Gyeonggi-do, Korea
Steven J. Jordan Econometric Solutions Fossil Park Drive Fort Worth, TX 76101
Wonchang Lee Hi Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. Seoul, Korea
The ad hoc Black-Scholes model is one of the most widely used models for forecasting implied volatility. In this paper, we propose a methodology that provides more accurate out-of-sample implied volatility forecasts. Standard approaches estimate the whole volatility smile using both out-of-the-money puts and calls. The improvements from our method are obtained by taking advantage of information contained in the asymmetric slopes of the put and call implied volatility sneers that result in a discontinuity when moneyness is equal to 1. These improvements in out-of-sample implied volatility forecasts are large and significant. Our results are robust across several dimensions, including: time period, forecast horizon, moneyness, and model specification.
Youngsoo Choi
Steven J. Jordan
Wonchang Lee
The ad hoc Black-Scholes model is one of the most widely used models for forecasting implied volatility. In this paper, we propose a methodology that provides more accurate out-of-sample implied volatility forecasts. Standard approaches estimate the whole volatility smile using both out-of-the-money puts and calls. The improvements from our method are obtained by taking advantage of information contained in the asymmetric slopes of the put and call implied volatility sneers that result in a discontinuity when moneyness is equal to 1. These improvements in out-of-sample implied volatility forecasts are large and significant. Our results are robust across several dimensions, including: time period, forecast horizon, moneyness, and model specification.
Ad Hoc Black-Scholes (AHBS),asymmetric volatility sneer,data usage,implied volatility.
[ 07327 ] 67-8, Yeouinaru-ro, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, Korea TEL. +82-2-2003-9921 FAX. +82-2-2003-9979 E-mail. office@korfin.org COPYRIGHT(C) SINCE 1987 KOREAN FINANCE ASSOCIATION. All rights reserved.