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Asian Review of Financial Research, Vol., No..
pp.1710~1762
pp.1710~1762
State-Dependent Variations in Expected Illiquidity Premium
Jeewon Jang College of Business, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Seoul, Korea,
Jangkoo Kang Graduate School of Finance & Accounting, College of Business, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Seoul, Korea
Changjun Lee College of Business Administration, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies
Recent theories of state-dependent variations in market liquidity suggest strong variations in expected illiquidity premium across economic states. Adopting a two-state Markov switching model, we find that while illiquid stocks are more strongly affected by economic conditions than liquid ones during recessions, the differences in expected returns are relatively weak during expansions. As a result, the expected illiquidity premium displays strong state-dependent variations, and its countercyclical pattern is consistent with theoretical argument based on timevarying liquidity risk premium. Overall, our results provide a strong relation between the expected illiquidity premium and the real business cycle.
Jeewon Jang
Jangkoo Kang
Changjun Lee
Recent theories of state-dependent variations in market liquidity suggest strong variations in expected illiquidity premium across economic states. Adopting a two-state Markov switching model, we find that while illiquid stocks are more strongly affected by economic conditions than liquid ones during recessions, the differences in expected returns are relatively weak during expansions. As a result, the expected illiquidity premium displays strong state-dependent variations, and its countercyclical pattern is consistent with theoretical argument based on timevarying liquidity risk premium. Overall, our results provide a strong relation between the expected illiquidity premium and the real business cycle.
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