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Asian Review of Financial Research, Vol., No..
pp.632~643
pp.632~643
Using predicted cumulative probability distribution of hidden Markov Model for European option pricing
Youngchul Han Department of Mathematics, Yonsei University, Seoul 120-749, Korea
Jungwoo Lee Department of Mathematics, Yonsei University, Seoul 120-749, Korea
Jeong-Hoon Kim Department of Mathematics, Yonsei University, Seoul 120-749, Korea
In this paper, we proposed model for European option pricing using predicted cumulative probability distribution of hidden Markov Model. The Black-Scholes model is based on Gaussian distribution and the model's main shortfall is fat-tail problem. Because of fat-tail problem, the implied volatility surface is shaped skew, smirk or other forms. To correct model's drawback, we extract predicted cumulative distribution using hidden Markov Model and simulate the underlying price paths using Monte Carlo method. In the results, our model re
ect current implied volatility surface suciently.
Youngchul Han
Jungwoo Lee
Jeong-Hoon Kim
In this paper, we proposed model for European option pricing using predicted cumulative probability distribution of hidden Markov Model. The Black-Scholes model is based on Gaussian distribution and the model's main shortfall is fat-tail problem. Because of fat-tail problem, the implied volatility surface is shaped skew, smirk or other forms. To correct model's drawback, we extract predicted cumulative distribution using hidden Markov Model and simulate the underlying price paths using Monte Carlo method. In the results, our model re
ect current implied volatility surface suciently.
Hidden Markov Model,Monte Carlo Simulation,Option Pricing,Implied Volatility
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