The Effects of Cash Dividends and Stock Dividends on Future Earnings Growth
Minshik Shin
Wiechen Zhang
In this paper, we analyze empirically the effects of cash dividends and stock dividends on future earnings growth in firms listed on Korea Exchange. Sample firms are classified into the cash dividends, stock dividends, and dual dividends firms, based on different types of dividends. The main results of this study can be summarized as follows. As the results for the cash dividends firms show, cash dividend payout ratios have a positive and significant effect on future earnings growth, which is consistent with the free cash flow hypothesis. Firms with higher cash dividend payout ratios can pay higher dividends to reduce the information asymmetry and agency problems. However, high cash dividend yields will partially offset the effects of high cash dividend payout ratios on future earnings growth. As the results for the stock dividends firms show, high stock dividend payout ratios have a positive and significant effect on future earnings growth, indicating that high stock dividend conveys optimistic signals about future profitability to outside investors. As the results for the dual dividends firms show, for stock dividend inclined firms, relationships between dual dividend payout ratios and future earnings growth are likely to be stronger than for cash dividend inclined firms, which is also consistent with the retained earnings hypothesis. Moreover, for balanced dividend firms, relationships between dual dividend payout ratios and future earnings growth are likely to be stronger than for low-cash and high-cash dividend firms, which is consistent with the balanced dividend hypothesis. In conclusion, for the cash dividends, stock dividends, and dual dividends firms, dividend payout ratios have a positive and significant effect on future earnings growth, respectively. High cash dividend payouts may reduce the information asymmetry and agency problems, high stock dividend payouts may convey optimistic signals about future profitability, and balanced dividend payouts may provide the balanced dividends effect.
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