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Cross-Sectional and Intertemporal Forecast Dispersions, Risk, and Stock Returns

  • Dongcheol Kim Korea University Business School
  • Haejung Na Korea University Business School
Previous researches focus on examining only the relation between cross-sectional earnings forecast dispersion and stock returns and on providing explanations for the negative dispersionreturn relation. This paper attempts to examine not only the relation between time-series forecast dispersion and stock returns, but also whether time-series and cross-sectional forecast dispersions contain systematic risk components, and whether such risk is priced in stock returns. We find that there is a strong positive relation between time-series forecast dispersion and stock returns. We also find that time-series forecast dispersion apparently contains systematic risk components and that such risk is priced in stock returns, while cross-sectional dispersion does not. In other words, dispersion in analysts' forecasts is informative intertemporally in terms of pricing ability but not cross-sectionally.

  • Dongcheol Kim
  • Haejung Na
Previous researches focus on examining only the relation between cross-sectional earnings forecast dispersion and stock returns and on providing explanations for the negative dispersionreturn relation. This paper attempts to examine not only the relation between time-series forecast dispersion and stock returns, but also whether time-series and cross-sectional forecast dispersions contain systematic risk components, and whether such risk is priced in stock returns. We find that there is a strong positive relation between time-series forecast dispersion and stock returns. We also find that time-series forecast dispersion apparently contains systematic risk components and that such risk is priced in stock returns, while cross-sectional dispersion does not. In other words, dispersion in analysts' forecasts is informative intertemporally in terms of pricing ability but not cross-sectionally.
Analysts' earnings forecasts,Cross-sectional forecast dispersion,Time-series forecastdispersion,Systematic risk components,Macroeconomic conditions