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Asian Review of Financial Research, Vol., No..
pp.475~527
pp.475~527
Neglected risk and the market for bond insurance
Ji Yeol Jimmy Oh Assistant Professor of Economics (as a part of military service), Department of Economics and Law, Korea Military Academy, P.O.
Monoline insurers collapsed in a dramatic manner during the subprime crisis. In this paper, I present a stylized model to account for this market breakdown. The initial neglect of a severe loss outcome by local thinking agents can trigger rating downgrade of insurers. This results in a damaging forced exit of investors with an investment certiffication constraint. However, the model identies a more fundamental problem. Even when the agents are rational, bond insurance exerts a negative externality by eliminating the price discount of an uninsured bond. Therefore, excessive focus on proper risk management alone may not improve the market welfare.
Ji Yeol Jimmy Oh
Monoline insurers collapsed in a dramatic manner during the subprime crisis. In this paper, I present a stylized model to account for this market breakdown. The initial neglect of a severe loss outcome by local thinking agents can trigger rating downgrade of insurers. This results in a damaging forced exit of investors with an investment certiffication constraint. However, the model identies a more fundamental problem. Even when the agents are rational, bond insurance exerts a negative externality by eliminating the price discount of an uninsured bond. Therefore, excessive focus on proper risk management alone may not improve the market welfare.
Local thinking,credit enhancement,financial guaranty,tail risk,capital coverage
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