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Asian Review of Financial Research, Vol., No..
pp.1739~1787
pp.1739~1787
The Pricing of CBOT Exchange Seat
Taewoo You Department of Business Administration, Myongji College
Mark Holder College of Business Administration, Kent State University, Kent, OH 44242, USA
This paper analyzes the behavior of the CBOT seat prices for the post-1975 period. Based on the time-series property of seat returns and the empirical link between seat returns and economic factors, we develop a conditional multi-factor model, where the price of risks are assumed to be linearly generated from the ARIMA estimates of the factor values. Particularly, we find the close short-run and long-run link between the CBOT seat price and CBOT trading volume. Importantly, the CBOT seat returns appear to exhibit significant power in predicting stock market returns, the growth of CBOT trading volume, the growth of industrial production, and interest rate. Based on the dynamic pricing model including three factors by Fama and French, we find that excess seat returns are time-varying with some expected factor variables, such as expected size premium ( SMBe ), expected CBOT trading volume (VOLe ), and expected interest rate ( INTe ). Seat returns are particularly sensitive to the size premium shock ( SMBu ). We conclude that the pricing mechanism of CBOT seats is similar to that of a well-diversified stock market portfolio.
Taewoo You
Mark Holder
This paper analyzes the behavior of the CBOT seat prices for the post-1975 period. Based on the time-series property of seat returns and the empirical link between seat returns and economic factors, we develop a conditional multi-factor model, where the price of risks are assumed to be linearly generated from the ARIMA estimates of the factor values. Particularly, we find the close short-run and long-run link between the CBOT seat price and CBOT trading volume. Importantly, the CBOT seat returns appear to exhibit significant power in predicting stock market returns, the growth of CBOT trading volume, the growth of industrial production, and interest rate. Based on the dynamic pricing model including three factors by Fama and French, we find that excess seat returns are time-varying with some expected factor variables, such as expected size premium ( SMBe ), expected CBOT trading volume (VOLe ), and expected interest rate ( INTe ). Seat returns are particularly sensitive to the size premium shock ( SMBu ). We conclude that the pricing mechanism of CBOT seats is similar to that of a well-diversified stock market portfolio.