재무연구 제 권 호 (2008년 5월)
Asian Review of Financial Research, Vol., No..
pp.669~711
pp.669~711
How Does Prior Information Affect Analyst Forecast Herding?
Michele O'Neill College of Business and Economics The University of Idaho
Minsup Song College of Business and Administration Sogang University
Judith Swisher Department of Finance and Commercial Law Haworth College of Business Western Michigan University
This research uses four different measures of bold to investigate how prior information affects analyst herding decisions. Results for the more restrictive measures of bold suggest that the probability of herding is greater with large information shocks. Evidence also shows that analysts are more likely to herd in their forecast revisions when their current outstanding forecasts deviate more from the consensus mean and in the presence of strong observable signals. In general, analysts with current outstanding forecasts that are optimistic are more likely to issue revised forecasts that are also optimistic.
Michele O'Neill
Minsup Song
Judith Swisher
This research uses four different measures of bold to investigate how prior information affects analyst herding decisions. Results for the more restrictive measures of bold suggest that the probability of herding is greater with large information shocks. Evidence also shows that analysts are more likely to herd in their forecast revisions when their current outstanding forecasts deviate more from the consensus mean and in the presence of strong observable signals. In general, analysts with current outstanding forecasts that are optimistic are more likely to issue revised forecasts that are also optimistic.
