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Macroeconomic Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

  • Jangkoo Kang Graduate School of Finance, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Hoegiro, Dongdaemoon-gu, Seoul, 130-722, Korea.
  • Tong Suk Kim Graduate School of Finance, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Hoegiro, Dongdaemoon-gu, Seoul, 130-722, Korea.
  • Changjun Lee Graduate School of Management, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Hoegiro, Dongdaemoon-gu, Seoul, 130-722, Korea.
  • Byoungkyu Min Graduate School of Management, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Hoegiro, Dongdaemoon-gu, Seoul, 130-722, Korea.
We develop a conditional version of the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) using the conditioning variable from the cointegrating relation among macroeconomic variables (dividend yield, term spread, default spread, and short-term interest rate). Our conditioning variable has a strong power to predict market excess returns in the presence of competing predictive variables. In addition, our conditional CCAPM performs about as well as Fama and French's (1993) three-factor model in explaining the cross-section of the Fama and French 25 size and book-to-market sorted portfolios. Our specification shows that value stocks are riskier than growth stocks in bad times, supporting the risk-based story.

  • Jangkoo Kang
  • Tong Suk Kim
  • Changjun Lee
  • Byoungkyu Min
We develop a conditional version of the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) using the conditioning variable from the cointegrating relation among macroeconomic variables (dividend yield, term spread, default spread, and short-term interest rate). Our conditioning variable has a strong power to predict market excess returns in the presence of competing predictive variables. In addition, our conditional CCAPM performs about as well as Fama and French's (1993) three-factor model in explaining the cross-section of the Fama and French 25 size and book-to-market sorted portfolios. Our specification shows that value stocks are riskier than growth stocks in bad times, supporting the risk-based story.
Asset pricing,macroeconomic variable,stock return predictability,consumption capital asset pricing model,value premium