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An Empirical Study of Credit Spreads in an Emerging Market : The Case of Korea

  • Keehwan Park
  • Chang Mo Ahn
  • Dohyeon Kim
  • Saekwon Kim
Empirically we test the Merton-type model (1974) of credit risk in an emerging market such as the Korean corporate bond market. For that purpose, we assume two alternative firm value processes: Diffusion process for the Merton (1974) model and jump-diffusion process for our extended model in a general equilibrium setting. Our empirical results show that the diffusion model generally underpredicts spreads ? which is referred to as ¡°the credit spread under prediction puzzle¡± in the literature, while our jump-diffusion model somewhat raises the predicted spreads. We assert that jump raises the spreads on two grounds. Firstly, an extremely large (negative) change tends to increase the probability for a firm to default particularly over a short-time horizon. Secondly, jump requires the systematic risk premium for a positively correlated firm particularly when the market turns extremely volatile.

  • Keehwan Park
  • Chang Mo Ahn
  • Dohyeon Kim
  • Saekwon Kim
Empirically we test the Merton-type model (1974) of credit risk in an emerging market such as the Korean corporate bond market. For that purpose, we assume two alternative firm value processes: Diffusion process for the Merton (1974) model and jump-diffusion process for our extended model in a general equilibrium setting. Our empirical results show that the diffusion model generally underpredicts spreads ? which is referred to as ¡°the credit spread under prediction puzzle¡± in the literature, while our jump-diffusion model somewhat raises the predicted spreads. We assert that jump raises the spreads on two grounds. Firstly, an extremely large (negative) change tends to increase the probability for a firm to default particularly over a short-time horizon. Secondly, jump requires the systematic risk premium for a positively correlated firm particularly when the market turns extremely volatile.
Diffusion Process,Jump-Diffusion Process,Credit Risk,Spread Under Prediction Puzzle,Risk-Neutral Probability Distribution