재무연구 제 권 호 (2012년 9월)
Asian Review of Financial Research, Vol., No..
pp.369~406
pp.369~406
The Effectiveness of Position Limits: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Futures Markets
Ya-Kai Chang Department of Money and Banking College of Commerce National Chengchi University
Yu-Lun Chen Department of Finance College of Business Chung Yuan Christian University
Robin K. Chou Department of Finance College of Commerce National Chengchi University
To test the effectiveness of position limits, this study examines the impact of the relative size of hedger and speculator open interests on the price discovery process in both JPY-USD and EUR-USD futures markets. Hedging trading has a negative impact, regardless of its size, on price discovery in futures markets. Hedgers are less likely to be information motivated, so their trading uniformly delays the price discovery process. However, there is a positive and nonlinear impact of speculators’ trade size on price discovery, the contribution of which depends on the relative size of the speculative open interest. Contrary to conventional wisdom among regulators, speculative trading does not harm the market in terms of price discovery; more important, as long as speculative trading is lower than an endogenously determined threshold, it even improves futures market efficiency.
Ya-Kai Chang
Yu-Lun Chen
Robin K. Chou
To test the effectiveness of position limits, this study examines the impact of the relative size of hedger and speculator open interests on the price discovery process in both JPY-USD and EUR-USD futures markets. Hedging trading has a negative impact, regardless of its size, on price discovery in futures markets. Hedgers are less likely to be information motivated, so their trading uniformly delays the price discovery process. However, there is a positive and nonlinear impact of speculators’ trade size on price discovery, the contribution of which depends on the relative size of the speculative open interest. Contrary to conventional wisdom among regulators, speculative trading does not harm the market in terms of price discovery; more important, as long as speculative trading is lower than an endogenously determined threshold, it even improves futures market efficiency.
