Forecasting the Long Memory Models in the Volatility of Asian Emerging Markets
Hyun Sung Noh
Sang Hoon Kang
This study investigates long memory and asymmetry in volatility of Asian emerging markets using the AR(1)-FIGARCH and AR(1)-FIAPARCH models under the Student-t distributions. The empirical results show strong evidence of long memory in the volatility of 8 Asian emerging markets. This evidence indicates that market shocks to volatility slowly disappear over the time. In addition, the FIAPARCH model detect volatility asymmetry in which investors want hedge negative information in Asian emerging markets. Finally, the forecasting error functions suggest that the FIAPARCH model with the Student-t distribution offers a superior forecasting ability to other models. These results provide important implications on assess accurate Value at Risk in the Asian emerging markets.