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The Forecast Dispersion Anomaly Revisited : Time-Series Mean Forecast Dispersion and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

  • Dongcheol Kim Korea University Business School
  • Haejung Na Korea University Business School
Previous researches focus on examining only the relation between cross-sectional earnings forecast dispersion and stock returns and on providing explanations for the negative dispersionreturn relation. This paper attempts to examine how time-series mean forecast dispersion is distinct in the relation to stock returns from the cross-sectional forecast dispersion effect. We find that contrary to the standard analyst dispersion effect, there is a strong positive relation between time-series mean forecast dispersion and stock returns. We also find that time-series mean forecast dispersion apparently contains systematic risk components and that such risk is priced in stock returns.

  • Dongcheol Kim
  • Haejung Na
Previous researches focus on examining only the relation between cross-sectional earnings forecast dispersion and stock returns and on providing explanations for the negative dispersionreturn relation. This paper attempts to examine how time-series mean forecast dispersion is distinct in the relation to stock returns from the cross-sectional forecast dispersion effect. We find that contrary to the standard analyst dispersion effect, there is a strong positive relation between time-series mean forecast dispersion and stock returns. We also find that time-series mean forecast dispersion apparently contains systematic risk components and that such risk is priced in stock returns.
Analysts' earnings forecasts,Time-series mean forecast dispersion,Cross-sectional forecast dispersion,Systematic risk components,Macroeconomic conditions