LOG IN⠴ݱâ

  • ȸ¿ø´ÔÀÇ ¾ÆÀ̵ð¿Í Æнº¿öµå¸¦ ÀÔ·ÂÇØ ÁÖ¼¼¿ä.
  • ȸ¿øÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï½Ã¸é ¾Æ·¡ [ȸ¿ø°¡ÀÔ]À» ´­·¯ ȸ¿ø°¡ÀÔÀ» ÇØÁֽñ⠹ٶø´Ï´Ù.

¾ÆÀ̵ð ÀúÀå

   

¾ÆÀ̵ð Áߺ¹°Ë»ç⠴ݱâ

HONGGIDONG ˼
»ç¿ë °¡´ÉÇÑ È¸¿ø ¾ÆÀ̵ð ÀÔ´Ï´Ù.

E-mail Áߺ¹È®ÀÎ⠴ݱâ

honggildong@naver.com ˼
»ç¿ë °¡´ÉÇÑ E-mail ÁÖ¼Ò ÀÔ´Ï´Ù.

¿ìÆí¹øÈ£ °Ë»ö⠴ݱâ

°Ë»ö

SEARCH⠴ݱâ

ºñ¹Ð¹øÈ£ ã±â

¾ÆÀ̵ð

¼º¸í

E-mail

ÇмúÀÚ·á °Ë»ö

What Drives Emerging Stock Market Returns? A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach

  • Dohyoung Kwon Investment Policy Division, National Pension Research Institute
This paper explores the dynamic relationship between global economic factors and emerging stock returns within a factor-augmented VAR model. I nd that favorable global growth and stock market shocks have signicant positive eects on emerging equity returns, whereas an unexpected rise in US dollar exchange rate and global pol- icy uncertainty causes a substantial fall in the returns. Oil shocks lead to a transient increase in emerging stock returns, followed by a gradual decline. Variance decompo- sition analysis implies that 80% of the long-term uctuation in emerging stock returns is explained by the global economic shocks. In particular, the US dollar exchange rate shock is the most critical, accounting for 36%, followed by global stock, policy uncer- tainty, and oil shocks, explaining 17%, 15%, and 10%, respectively. These ndings have important implications for international investors, as well as for policy makers in emerging economies.

  • Dohyoung Kwon
This paper explores the dynamic relationship between global economic factors and emerging stock returns within a factor-augmented VAR model. I nd that favorable global growth and stock market shocks have signicant positive eects on emerging equity returns, whereas an unexpected rise in US dollar exchange rate and global pol- icy uncertainty causes a substantial fall in the returns. Oil shocks lead to a transient increase in emerging stock returns, followed by a gradual decline. Variance decompo- sition analysis implies that 80% of the long-term uctuation in emerging stock returns is explained by the global economic shocks. In particular, the US dollar exchange rate shock is the most critical, accounting for 36%, followed by global stock, policy uncer- tainty, and oil shocks, explaining 17%, 15%, and 10%, respectively. These ndings have important implications for international investors, as well as for policy makers in emerging economies.
Emerging stock returns,Factor-augmented VAR,Global economic factors